The Outsiders' Edge

To read more or less of  Ben Halls check out http://www.thebenhallsblog.blogspot.com/ He assures me that he loves hearing from Ireland and Liverpool fans.

Whoa, it has certainly been a while since I last appeared round here. It may have only been two and a bit weeks, but it feels like a lifetime. It isn’t even my fault, either. I’ve been wanting to chirp in with my points of view. However, at this time of year in World Cup seasons, the end of the qualification process holds up proceedings a bit. Which means there are spells where the Premiership got about one game a week in.

Now, however, all that International  nonsense is in the books and with the exception of a friendly early next year, we can all look forward to seeing how The Premiership turns out over the next 24 games. As per usual, lets start proceedings with a peek at the top of the table.

The High Flying Fat Cats

So far my predictions look as if they are coming true. This is an odd occurrence and if at any point during your day you should happen across a break in the space time continuum, then it is entirely my fault. Sorry about that.

At any rate, so far my picture of the top of the Premiership is holding relatively true. Chelsea, who are probably the best team in English football at the moment, have a nice 5 point lead over Manchester United and close to those two are absolutely nobody. This year is going to end up being another straight dog fight between the Blues and the Reds. I still say that Chelsea should be able to hold on and do it. They have all the pieces of their squad pretty much in place. I think they could do with a new right back and a recognised backup striker, but that appears to be the least of their worries. Right now they are picking up both the vital wins against good teams and not tripping up against the bad teams. That is how you grind out Championships.

When Chelsea takes over the bedroom, this is where you will live.

However, there is still one great big ‘but’ about Chelsea. Right now I have no reason to doubt them, but their squad doesn’t have tremendous depth and they have the African Cup Of Nations to deal with in January.

Now, with their impending transfer ban, I would expect Chelsea to strengthen where they need it most – left wing, right back, striker – at the beginning of January. This would give them both injury cover for the rest of the season and beyond, as well as providing players who can step in when the likes of Drogba and Essien are representing their countries in Africa.

If Manchester United, just 14 games into the season, want any chance of upending Chelsea then they need to win at least 20 of the next 24 games. It is that simple. Right now, Chelsea have a 5 point advantage and look damn near unstoppable. The only way for United to turn it around is to keep winning and hope that either Ancelotti makes a horrendous cock up during his rookie Premiership season or they can beat Chelsea in the rematch.

Somewhere a long way behind the top two are the rest of the field. I cannot remember the last time there was such a commanding lead after the first chunk of games. Third placed Tottenham are some 10 points off Chelsea while Liverpool are 13. That is unreal. It is a bit harsh to see where Arsenal are behind points wise as they have a game in hand, but if they loose it then they join the crowd by being 11 points off.

Now, I know that December is a bit early to start writing teams off but lets look at the facts. Lets look at how many more wins teams need than Chelsea to take the top of the title away from them.

Manchester United – 2 Wins

Spurs – 4 Wins

Arsenal – 4 Wins (although probably 3 due to the game in hand)

Liverpool – 5 Wins

Aston Villa – 5 Wins

Manchester City – 5 Wins (although could be 4 due to another game in hand)

Once again, I’m not anointing Chelsea as the champs just yet, but with the exception of Manchester United, I don’t see any of those other teams picking up those amounts of extra wins to topple the Blues.

The Lowly, Downtrodden Masses

The teams at the bottom of the table look much as expected. Portsmouth are still firmly rooted to the bottom of the table, my other pick Wolves are down there as well and Hull, despite being out the danger zone at the moment, are about as convincing as a politician defending their innocence. I still have those 3 ear marked as going down and none of them have shown anything to prove me wrong.

What is interesting, however, is that Portsmouth were on the verge of turning it around when they decided to change managers. I can understand the timing – you’re bottom of the table and want a new manager to get in, evaluate the players and if the money is available bring in a few faces come January. Except, what Portsmouth have done is go out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Our old Pompey Fan friend at Outsiders Edge is still unsure whether to be happy or sad Avram Grant took over.

Firstly, lets not ignore that Pompey are in all kinds of trouble. It’s sad that only a few seasons ago, Harry Redknapp was reminding the world why he is such a gifted manager there and they won the FA Cup. Today, they couldn’t score their way out of a paper bag and are in all sorts of financial difficulties. They aren’t allowed to sign new players due to outstanding debts to other clubs and nobody really knows where the money to pay the wages is coming from.

Under the circumstances, Paul Hart was doing an admirable job. Portsmouth weren’t playing badly, its just they couldn’t win. As we have seen at Newcastle FC, sometimes a manager can galvanise a squad and turn things around. Chris Hughton inherited the hot seat after all of the turmoil at the club meant that a ‘proper’ manager couldn’t be hired. He inherited an absolute bloody shambles and despite the continuation of the horrendous mismanagement of the club, he has brought the squad together to play Premiership calibre football.

I honestly think that if Portsmouth had kept the faith with Hart as manager, he would have done the same. He is one of those gruff managers with a big heart that is capable of doing such a thing. I honestly believe that he could have brought that squad together, shut out all the distractions and escaped the drop zone. Instead, despite a heartfelt plea from Portsmouth to accept a move back to Youth Development, he is now without a club.

Instead of a Paul Hart, Portsmouth now have Avram Grant at the helm. Grant is probably most well known as a respectable Director Of Football, however he has had the odd spell on the sidelines. He made his name managing in Israel and, frankly, Israel ‘aint no Premiership. When he had his spell as Chelsea manager, that squad got to the Champions League final and came second in the Premiership despite him being at the helm, not because of him. Although he is one of the few managers who likes to give young players their shot, he is not what one would call a man manager or a good tactitian. He has a CV built on circumstance, not achievement, and has no shot at saving Portsmouth. It’s actually quite sad. Pompey’s 1-4 loss to Manchester United at the weekend showed this up perfectly.

Then again, there might just be a very simple explanation as to why Portsmouth blow this season – 8 of the 9 goals scored by Spurs against Wigan in their record win were scored by players who started last season at Portsmouth.

Now, let’s see what else is happening shall we?

Are Spurs Actually For Real?

I still can’t believe Spurs. From where they were 12 months ago, on the verge of doing a Newcastle, to being in the Champions League conversation is incredible. Harry Redknapp is clearly a genius and should run for the office of Prime Minister. Or run a coup and become king. One of the two.

PICTURE happyharry – “A Spurs fan gives their own special thanks to Harry”

When Spurs beat Liverpool on the opening day of the season, it was written off as a slow start for Liverpool and Spurs just being opportunistic. Since then, Spurs have shown that game in and game out they are the better team by a long way. Looking back at the teams around them,  I have to believe that they are in prime position to steal the 4^th Champions League spot. Arsenal should run away with 3^rd, however I can’t see anyone upsetting Spurs for 4^th place. They are competing with Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool for that spot.

Liverpool don’t know whether they are coming or going anymore, and I don’t see Rafa being able to motivate them into brilliance. They are a 3 player team – Gerrard, Torres, Reina – and need all 3 on form to do anything noteworthy.

Manchester City have made so many changes to their whole organisation this season, it will take another year for the transition to complete and dust to settle.

Aston Villa, despite having an equally talented manager, just don’t have the squad to hand.

Spurs, meanwhile, have an excellent manager, deep squad and a bit of self belief. I wouldn’t bet the house on it, but it would not be an upset if they were to find themselves 4^th, with Champions League football and in a position to stop focusing on the squad and bring in the odd marquee player, especially in the centre of their defence.

Will Mark Hughes Still Be Man City Manager At The End Of The Season?

It was only a matter of time before the scuttlebutt started. Of all of Fergie’s players turned managers, Mark Hughes is second in the success list behind only Steve Bruce. He is a good attacking tactician with a proper English footballing mentality. Despite the fact he is Welsh.

However, with the Hughes situation at Man City, we are seeing a classic case of managers clashing with owners who don’t understand football. Last month, they drew with Birmingham, Burnley and Hull.

If you are one of the rich people who pump money into Man City, they you cannot understand it. Your squad is far more expensive, your players paid much more and where as those teams are made up of mostly just very good Championship players, you have spent £250m on a team of world renowned internationals. It doesn’t make any sense. Therefore, the finger points at the manager.

Except, it’s football. There are always disappointing runs of form, strange upset results and inferior teams successfully parking the bus in front of the goal and shutting a better squad out. The whole reason the FA Cup is interesting as a spectacle before the quarter finals is because you can follow all the minnow teams have the run of their lives and watch on with a warm, fuzzy feeling. You know that whenever the non-league Sunday pub team makes it through to the third round, all is right with the world.

But as we already know, rich owners don’t care about warm fuzzy feelings. They want to ensure they get their 8% ROI per annum with a minimum of 5% growth quarter on quarter so that they can appease the consortium they put together. They don’t care if Burnley defend well. That fact and nothing else will cost Hughes his job.

Maybe It’s Time Everton Do Something

Ever since Everton had their astonishing 4^th placed Premiership finish at the end of the 2004\2005 campaign, they have been considered a ‘nearly’ team along with Aston Villa, Spurs and Man City. Except, currently Everton are 16^th in the table, and that is a fair representation of their form over the last few years. Unusually, their biggest problem isn’t inept management, bad ownership or a cursed goat. It is in the injuries.

With the possible exception of Newcastle, who at one point last season lost pretty much their entire first team, Everton have to be one of the most injury plagued squads ever. Most of their midfield and strike force have gone down with some calamitous injury at some point in the last few years. Usually a few go at a time, leaving the club with very little in the way of talent and a whole lot in the way of mediocre squad players. If something isn’t done, they are in danger of falling into that bad trap that oh so many promising sports teams have done and just disappearing into obscurity.

Everton, frankly, need to stop farting about looking to build a new Stadium and concentrate on their squad. All their problems could be solved from chucking £25m on a few new decent squad players.

However, I can’t help but think that maybe Everton need a change somewhere else.

Teams get struck down by injuries. It’s sport. It happens. Unless you are one of the lucky few players who aren’t susceptible to injuries, and they are a big minority, you can expect at least 2 a year.

It turns out Vin Diesel is actually playing goalie for Everton instead of Tim Howard

Everton, though, must have a team full of invalids who are held together with duck tape and safety pins. That is the only explanation. The amount of injuries that squad pick up is ridiculous. It has been happening for so long, maybe they should stop saying ‘Oh well, it’s bad luck’ and start making proactive changes. Get a new fitness coach. Get some new physio’s. Look at their training facilities and see if there is a contributing factor. They need to find out why players who sign for Everton have their knee’s explode.

The Traditional Liverpool Bashing Section

It is impossible for me to write 3,000 odd words without having at least one little dig at Liverpool. It’s tradition, or an old charter, or something.

However, in the last week or so my view of Liverpool’s current form has gone from some sort of gloating joy to pity. A bit like when your buddy goes up to a girl at a bar and it is abundantly clear to everyone but him that she isn’t interested. But he doesn’t stop hanging around and talking, acting like a lost puppy dog. And you cringe, and try to explain that no matter how hard he tries she will never be interested in the content of his trousers. But it is all to no avail, as eventually he gets so clingy a large man in a trench coat who is allegedly ’security’ takes him out a front door and mutters something about harassment.

Not that I have odd friends or anything. But the point is that where as I initially fell in love with the fact that Liverpool were in trouble, it has now switched to shame and pity. Like it or lump it, Liverpool are a really solid footballing organisation with a storied history. Much like the Patriots, Colts, Packers, Cowboys et al are the sorts of teams that should always be in the conversation come the crunch time of the NFL season, Liverpool should be relevant at the business end of the Premiership season.

Liverpool need to take the strong 4 point grab they put in in their last 2 games and use it to rebuild their season. If they don’t finish 4^th as a bare minimum this season, then all hell will break loose. The owners have fallen out of love with the club and each other. Rafa isn’t getting the job done this season, but due to his huge contract Liverpool couldn’t change managers even if they wanted to. They haven’t made it through to the next round of this year’s Champions League. The euphoria that made Steven Gerrard turn down big money moves to Chelsea or Real Madrid after Liverpool won the Champions League a few years ago has worn off. Torres, arguably the best out and out striker in the world, will not be happy to spend the glory years of his career with a team who can’t get the job done. Pepe Reina has already expressed his interest in returning to Spain several times over.

There are very few managers in the Premiership who put in the amount of hours scouting teams, players and working on tactics as Rafa. But all of that will be worth exactly nothing unless he can focus his squad at the job in hand, take it a game at a time to rebuild his season and then see where he is with 10 games to go.

Except he isn’t. He is still talking about winning the Premiership. He is ignoring the fact that two of his best players, Reina and Mascherano, want away. He is ignoring the fact he is running Torres and Gerrard so far into the ground that they are both winding up with injuries. He is ignoring the fact that aside from those players, his squad at mediocre at best. In no way shape or form is Glen Johnson a £20m right back, yet he decided to splash his budget there despite not having a single other serviceable striker. He sold Robbie Keane back to spurs for a big loss after a bad start. He let Craig Bellamy, the man who has brought the Man City attack together, go as well. And Peter Crouch.

I hate spending this much time harping on about Liverpool’s problems, but it is for me the single biggest story of the Premiership season.

A Quick Word On Ireland

I have to mention this. It  is ridiculous if I don’t.

The worst thing to happen to Ireland since the Potato Famine

I’m British, so one of my favourite pastimes is hating on the French. When Thierry Henry decided to play volleyball in the build up to the winning goal in the World Cup Qualifier, I was outraged. Especially when it ended up costing Ireland a place in the World Cup.

However, after the initial knee jerk reactions, over analysis and making the joke of ‘Of course Henry considered retiring after that – he is French. When he is in trouble, he just surrenders’ I put a bit of logical thought into the whole scenario.

Honestly, although I don’t think the decision that FIFA reached was fair in the slightest, but it was the right one. The ref didn’t make an administrative cock up on the pitch, he made a mistake. Human error will always occur when humans are in charge of something. It is a shame. Under any other circumstance, I think France would have let Ireland score an unopposed goal, but of course they couldn’t in that situation. So they carried on and won.

I would have liked to have seen the extra time replayed, but that would set a hugely unfair precedent. The only thing that I think could have been done would have been for the Irish players to walk off the pitch. Steve Bruce did that with his Sheffield United squad against Arsenal in the FA cup once after an Arsenal player scored in an unsporting like manner. What happened in that instance was Sheffield put the ball out for a throw in so an Arsenal player could receive treatment. The unwritten rule then states that Arsenal give the ball back to Sheffield, except Kanu decided instead to waltz down the pitch and score. After Sheffield walked off, the match was declared void and replayed.

Aside from using a scenario like that, though, Ireland have to accept the fact that that match will go down in history as an unfair result, use it to improve their mental toughness and move on. Except much like with Liverpool, my feelings have now changed with Ireland. It has gone from sympathy to pity.

Ireland have asked FIFA to break every rule in the book and include them in the World Cup anyway. This is ridiculous and has made Ireland look absolutely bloody stupid. Aside from the fact that ‘Oh we came close, go on let us in’ is not exactly a good standpoint to use in professional sports, the simple matter of the fact is that Ireland wasn’t ahead. Maybe if that winning goal for France put them through on the away goal rules and you could say without a shadow of a doubt that if Henry’s handball had been caught, Ireland were going to South Africa there would be a case for it. Maybe. But at the end of the day, the match was 1 – 1 on aggregate. It was a stalemate. Who knows what would have happened in the remainder of the match if the handball had been caught, and who knows what would have happened in the penalties.

I really, really feel sorry for Ireland. If I was Irish I’d be drunk most of the time, but I’d also feel a massive sense of injustice. And rightly so. But they need to realise that there is no way they are being invited to South Africa. It would cheapen the greatest sporting tournament on earth.

They need to just realise that they will have been instrumental in getting video technology at best, or extra refs in big games at worst, into football. By all means use the unfair result as motivation for years to come, but right now they are just disgracing themselves and cheapening a defining moment in football.

I think after that I can add the Irish and Liverpool fans to the list of people that hate me. Until next time, I’ll be living under an assumed name at an unknown location….

Better watch your ankles Henry